为保护济南泉水，实施了减采和回灌措施，回归分析计算表明，1972—2002年泉水断流期间影响泉水位的主要因素是开采量，2003年以来泉水持续喷涌阶段开采量降至次要因素.基于2004—2012年间泉水位动态观测资料，采用地下水位动态线型特征系数法确定济南的岩溶裂隙发育较好；运用SPSS软件对降雨、回灌两个因子对泉水位影响程度进行分析，建立泉水位与月降雨回归—自回归模型，结果显示前一个月降雨对泉水位具有显著性影响；建立泉水位与降水量高次趋势模型，计算枯水期维持济南泉水动态稳定的月降雨阈值为26.65~30.73 mm；基于人工回灌量与泉水水位分析，计算得出枯水期保泉回灌补源量应不小于16.56万m3/d.研究结果表明，泉水位受气象和人为影响较敏感，为济南保泉与地下水回灌补源提供科学依据.
Jinan spring groups are famous large karst springs in north China. The interaction of natural factors and human impact had caused a decline in jinan karstic water level. Jinan spring groups began to appear cutoff in 1972, and the cutoff lasted from 1972 to 2002. To protect the jinan springs, some measures, like reducing groundwater exploitation and artificial recharge have been carried out. The result of regression analysis shows that, during that cutoff period, the main reason affecting spring water level is groundwater exploitation, but since 2003, Jinan spring groups have resumed spewing, and groundwater exploitation is no longer a major factor affecting the spring water level. Based on the series dynamic observation data of Jinan springs water level from 2004 to 2012, it is determined that the development degree of Jinan karst is relatively high by the method of dynamic characteristics curve types of karst water level. Through SPSS software, the influence degree on springs water level caused by precipitation and artificial recharge was analyzed. The regression—autoregressive model was built, which shows that the last month precipitation has significant effect on the water level. Using the higher order trend mathematical model about springs water level and precipitation, it is calculated that the monthly precipitation threshold is 26.65~30.73 mm to maintain Jinan spring dynamic stability in dry season. Finally, for spring protection, the paper puts forward that the artificial recharge water quantity is not less than 165 600 m3/d in dry season. Research suggests that springs water level is sensitive to climate change and human activities, and our research results can provide some scientific basis for the jinan springs protection and groundwater recharge.
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中国综合性科技类核心期刊(北大核心)