现代设计理论

IPCC_A1B情景下京杭运河21世纪中叶水资源条件时空演化

  • 夏海斌 ,
  • 乐群
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  • 1. 华东师范大学 城市与城镇更新规划设计研究中心,上海200062;
    2.  华东师范大学 地理科学学院,上海200241
夏海斌,男,博士,研究方向为气候变化与区域可持续发展

收稿日期: 2014-12-11

  网络出版日期: 2015-12-23

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(11114106);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955804)

Spacetime evolution for mid21st century water resources over the BeijingHangzhou Grand Canal under the IPCC_A1B scenario

  • XIA Hai-Bin ,
  • LE Qun-
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Received date: 2014-12-11

  Online published: 2015-12-23

摘要

随着京杭大运河的申遗成功,关于京杭运河的全线“活化”及复航成为关注的重点,其关键是京杭运河沿线的水资源的调配和利用. 本文采用IPCC的A1B情景,模拟了中国当代(20世纪后期,1981-2000年20年均值表示)和未来时期(21世纪中叶,2041-2060年20年均值表示)的降水量时空分布及演化特征,分析了京杭运河所经流域的水资源时空演化特征. 发现京杭运河自南向北所经流域,长江流域水资源量会有所下降,淮河流域、黄河流域及海河流域的水资源量将略有上升. 由此可以看出,京杭运河的全线复航关键是在尽早利用淮河流域及以南的水资源北上“济运”,实现黄河以北运河的复航,同时在现有南水北调工程背景下尽可能恢复“南旺分水枢纽工程”及“北五湖”的水柜功能,实现京杭运河世界文化遗产的“活态”保存.

本文引用格式

夏海斌 , 乐群 . IPCC_A1B情景下京杭运河21世纪中叶水资源条件时空演化[J]. 华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015 , 2015(6) : 179 -189 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2015.06.022

Abstract

With the successful application for the list of the World Heritage, the renaissance and activation of the BeijingHangzhou Grand Canal has become a focus, of which, the key is utilization and distribution of water resources of watershed along the Grand Canal. This article adopts the A1B scenario of IPCC in order to simulate space and time distribution of precipitation as well as its evolution characteristics both in Chinese modern times (later 20th century, represented by 1981-2000 twenty years’ annual mean value) and future times (middle 21th century, represented by 2041-2060 twenty years’ annual mean value). This scenario simulation aims to analyze the spacetimechange characteristics of water resources of the Grand Canal. It reveals that from north to south, the volume of water resources of the Yangtze River Valley will decrease, while that of Huaihe River Valley will increase significantly.
And that of the Huanghe River Valley and the Haihe River Valley will rise up slightly. Therefore, it concludes that the key of navigationof the GrandCanal is to use as early as possible the water resources of the Huaihe River Valley to transfer water resources in the south valley of Huanghe River to the north valley, and achieve navigation of the Grand Canal in the north of Huanghe Valley as well as to restore the “diversion works in Nanwang” and “Northern five Lakes Reservoir” in the context of “SouthtoNorth Water Diversion Project” so that the GrandCanal world heritage could be preserved. 

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