黄河口海上光伏场区潮位高精度预报

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2025.04.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在超浅海建造海上光伏场区, 需要开展潮位预报以保障施工船只的安全和工程顺利进行. 在黄河口HG14海上光伏场区开展了连续3个多月的潮位观测, 基于实测潮位数据, 进行潮汐调和分析, 开展测站潮汐调和分析预报, 以及建立渤海水动力模型, 并在模型验证的基础上开展潮位数值预报. 实测潮位资料表明, 光伏场区潮汐为不规则半日混合潮, 潮汐日不等明显, 最大潮差约为2.0 m. 经11个主要分潮的调和分析, 振幅从大到小的次序为M₂、K₁、O₁、S₂、K₂、P₁、N₂、M₄、Q₁、MS₄、M₆, 振幅分别为62.28、26.27、22.06、20.87、7.49、6.64、6.36、5.11、4.28、1.47、0.65 cm. 其中, M₂分潮振幅最大, 为62.28 cm, 是第二大K₁振幅(26.27 cm)的约2.4倍, 半日分潮S₂振幅20.87 cm比全日潮K₁、O₁小. 在3个浅水分潮中, M₄最大, MS₄和M₆小得多. 在得到主要分潮调和常数后, 给出了测站的调和分析潮汐预报. 结果表明, 调和分析预报潮位与实测潮位吻合良好, 调和分析预报潮位和数值模拟潮位与实测潮位的对比技术分数分别为0.96、0.97, 两者均能高精度预报潮位. 应用验证的数值模型模拟和预报了光伏场区模型输出点潮位, 给出了各月潮位随时间变化图和潮汐表. 光伏场区潮汐日不等小潮期间十分明显, 低潮位比大潮期间明显偏高. 潮汐表给出了输出点公历、农历、星期共3种日期每天每小时的潮位, 以及每日两次的高潮位、低潮位及其对应的时间. 研究得出了HG14海上光伏场区潮汐特征, 预报潮位可为施工船只避免搁浅提供技术指导.

关键词: 黄河口, 光伏场区, 潮汐调和分析, 潮位预报, 潮汐表

Abstract:

For the construction of offshore photovoltaic fields in ultra-shallow water, tidal level prediction is required to ensure the safety of construction vessels and the smooth progress of the project. In this study, continuous tidal level observations were conducted for over three months at the HG14 offshore photovoltaic field off the Yellow River estuary. Based on the measured tidal data, tidal harmonic analysis was performed, and tidal harmonic analysis prediction at the observation station was conducted. Numerical prediction of tidal level was conducted based on the establishment of the hydrodynamic model of the Bohai Sea and validation of the model. The measured data of the tidal level indicate that the tides in the photovoltaic field are irregular semi-diurnal mixed tides, with significant diurnal inequality and maximum tidal range of approximately 2.0 m. Harmonic analysis of the 11 major tidal constituents indicates that their amplitudes from large and small are M₂, K₁, O₁, S₂, K₂, P₁, N₂, M₄, Q₁, MS₄, and M₆, with respective amplitudes of 62.28, 26.27, 22.06, 20.87, 7.49, 6.64, 6.36, 5.11, 4.28, 1.47, and 0.65 cm. The amplitude of M₂ is 62.28 cm, approximately 2.37 times that of the second-largest constituent K₁ (26.27 cm). The amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent S₂ is 20.87 cm, which is smaller than those of the diurnal constituents K₁ and O₁. Among the three shallow-water tidal constituents, M₄ is the largest, while MS₄ and M₆ are significantly smaller than M₄. After obtaining the harmonic constants of the major tidal constituents, harmonic analysis tidal predictions were conducted at the observation station. The results show that the consistency between the harmonic analysis predicted tidal level and measured tidal level is very good. The technical scores of the predicted tidal level by harmonic analysis and the numerical simulated tidal level between the measured tidal level are 0.96 and 0.97, respectively, and both can predict the tidal level with high accuracy. The validated numerical model was applied to simulate and predict tidal levels at the model output point in the photovoltaic field. Temporal variation figures of tidal level and tide tables in each month were presented. The diurnal inequality in the photovoltaic field is particularly distinct during neap tides, with low tide levels noticeably higher than those during spring tides. The tide tables provide hourly tidal levels for each day at the output point in three dates of Gregorian, lunar, and weekday, as well as the two daily high- and low-tide levels and their corresponding times. This study indicated the tidal characteristics in the offshore photovoltaic field HG14. The predicted tidal levels can provide scientific guidance for construction vessels to avoid shallow grounding.

Key words: Yellow River estuary, photovoltaic field area, tidal harmonic analysis, tidal level prediction, tide table

中图分类号:

P731.2

叶灿胜, 翟鸣皋, 朱建荣. 黄河口海上光伏场区潮位高精度预报[J]. 华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 2025(4): 158-169.

Cansheng YE, Minggao ZHAI, Jianrong ZHU. High-precision tidal level prediction in the photovoltaic field offshore the Yellow River estuary[J]. J* E* C* N* U* N* S*, 2025, 2025(4): 158-169.

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