华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2007, Vol. 2007 ›› Issue (6): 20-28.

• 地理学 河口海岸学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于生态足迹模型的上海土地利用可持续性调控研究

戴晓燕，徐建华，董山，马军杰，王志海   

  1. 华东师范大学 地理信息科学教育部重点实验室，上海200062
  • 收稿日期:2006-10-27 修回日期:2007-04-28 出版日期:2007-11-25 发布日期:2007-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 徐建华

Study on Regulation of Land Use Sustainability in Shanghai Based on Ecological Footprint Model(Chinese)

DAI Xiao-yan, XU Jian-hua, DONG Shan, MA Jun-jie, WANG Zhi-hai   

  1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai200062, China
  • Received:2006-10-27 Revised:2007-04-28 Online:2007-11-25 Published:2007-11-25

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摘要： 运用生态足迹模型分析得到了上海市1996-2005年生态足迹的动态变化过程.在此基础上，结合灰色预测方法对近期（2010年）和远期（2020年）的生态足迹及各类用地规模进行了预测，确定了生态环境适宜的上海市土地利用调控指标与优化布局，测算结果将有助于科学制定土地利用总体规划以实现对土地利用的可持续性调控，促进土地利用与经济、人口、资源和环境的协调发展.

关键词: 生态足迹, 土地利用规划, 可持续性调控, 灰色预测方法, 生态足迹, 土地利用规划, 可持续性调控, 灰色预测方法

Abstract: The ecological footprint model was applied to analyze the variation of ecological footprint in Shanghai from 1996 to 2005. Based on these, the ecological footprint and land scale were predicted in 2010 and 2020 through the grey forecast model, and land use regulation indeces and optimal arrangement favorable to ecological environment in Shanghai were obtained. These results are helpful to establish general land use planning scientifically in order to implement the regulation of land use sustainability, and to promote the development of economy, population, resource, environment and land use in a harmonious way.

Key words: land use planning, sustainability regulation, grey forecast method, ecological footprint, land use planning, sustainability regulation, grey forecast method

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