地理学

基于精细化人口格网的城市机构养老设施供需分析——以上海市浦东新区为例

  • 张德英 ,
  • 周云云 ,
  • 冷燮 ,
  • 李龙 ,
  • 周嘉源 ,
  • 施润和
展开
  • 1. 华东师范大学 地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200241;
    2. 华东师范大学 环境遥感与数据同化联合实验室, 上海 200241;
    3. 华东师范大学 地理科学学院, 上海 200241;
    4. 上海市浦东新区统计局普查中心, 上海 200136
张德英,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为大数据挖掘与公共健康.E-mail:zzhangdeying@163.com.

收稿日期: 2018-01-18

  网络出版日期: 2019-03-27

基金资助

国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC1302602);上海市卫计委重点学科建设项目(15GWZK0201);上海市浦东新区统计局普查中心统计项目;中央高校基本科研业务费

Analysis of the supply and demand of senior living facilities based on a refined population grid: A case study of Shanghai Pudong New District

  • ZHANG De-ying ,
  • ZHOU Yun-yun ,
  • LENG Xie ,
  • LI Long ,
  • ZHOU Jia-yuan ,
  • SHI Run-he
Expand
  • 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    2. Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    3. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    4. Shanghai Pudong Census Center of the Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai 200136, China

Received date: 2018-01-18

  Online published: 2019-03-27

摘要

城市机构养老设施作为典型的公共服务资源,其供需矛盾尤为突出.基于现代地理信息技术获取的精细化人口格网,有助于在空间上有针对性地发现养老设施与老年人口之间的供需矛盾.文章以上海市浦东新区为研究区,基于160m的精细化老年人口格网,考虑机构养老设施的地理位置、床位数、入住老年人情况等要素的空间分布特征,揭示浦东新区机构养老设施与老年人口的供需关系.研究结果表明:①精细化老年人口格网能充分反映老年人口的各类空间属性特征,明确人口需求的区域特点,较好地匹配设施床位属性,充分展示设施供需现状;②研究区的机构养老设施在床位数上基本满足上海市政府提出的3%机构养老需求;③在空间上呈现出中心城区严重供不应求,设施规模小、老年人口密集,具有更迫切的养老需求;④近远郊地区供大于求,近郊地区存在多个养老设施服务范围重叠的现象,远郊地区部分养老设施地理位置偏僻,仍然存在需求缺口.

本文引用格式

张德英 , 周云云 , 冷燮 , 李龙 , 周嘉源 , 施润和 . 基于精细化人口格网的城市机构养老设施供需分析——以上海市浦东新区为例[J]. 华东师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2019 , 2019(2) : 174 -183 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2019.02.019

Abstract

The contradiction between supply and demand of urban senior living facilities, as a kind of basic public service resource, is especially severe. A refined population grid obtained by state-of-the-art geographic information technology is required to discover the spatial contradiction. This paper took Pudong New District of Shanghai as the research area. The contradiction between the supply and demand of senior living facilities was revealed based on a refined age population grid at a 160-meter resolution, considering the location of facilities, the number of beds, and the health condition of the elderly. The results show that:The refined age population grid can fully illustrate the spatial attributes of the aged population and can be matched with the distribution of beds in senior living facilities spatially, depicting both the supply and demand of senior living facilities visually. The number of beds in senior living facilities meets the requirements of the Shanghai government, namely no less than 3% of the local registered elderly population. The contradiction between supply and demand of senior living facilities depends on location. A distinctive shortage of supply exists in the central area. Smaller facilities and a dense elderly population reflect an urgent demand. Meanwhile, the situation is the reverse in the suburbs, there are multiple overlapping services of facilities. Some facilities in the outer suburbs are too remote to fit the required demand based on the distribution of the elderly population.

参考文献

[1] 郑伟,林山君,陈凯. 中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2014, 31(8):3-20.
[2] 张桂莲, 王永莲. 中国人口老龄化对经济发展的影响分析[J]. 人口学刊, 2010(5):48-53.
[3] 中华人民共和国国家统计局.2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报[EB/OL]. (2011-04-28)[2018-01-18]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/rkpcgb/qgrkpcgb/201104/t2011042830327.html.
[4] 中华人民共和国国家统计局. 上海浦东新区统计年鉴(2015)[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2015.
[5] 中华人民共和国国家统计局. 2015年全国1%人口抽样调查主要数据公报[EB/OL]. (2016-04-20)[2018-01-18]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201604/t201604201346151.html.
[6] 上海市人民政府发展研究中心. 上海养老服务发展报告(白皮书)[M]. 上海:上海格致出版社, 2015.
[7] 上海市人民政府. 上海市老龄事业发展"十三五"规划[EB/OL]. (2016-10-17)[2018-01-18]. http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/nw2/nw2314/nw2319/nw41893/u21aw1211940.html.
[8] ROGERS A, FREY W H, REES P, et al. Elderly migration and population redistribution:A comparative study[J]. Applied Geography, 1994, 14(2):190-191.
[9] WIENER J M, TILLY J. Population ageing in the United States of America:Implications for public programmes[J]. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2002, 31(4):776-781.
[10] 董春,刘纪平,赵荣,等. 地理因子与空间人口分布的相关性研究[J]. 遥感信息, 2002(4):61-64.
[11] BALK D L, DEICHMANN U, YETMAN G, et al. Determining global population distribution:Methods, applications and data[J]. Advances in Parasitology, 2006, 62:119-156.
[12] 柏中强,王卷乐,杨雅萍,等. 基于乡镇尺度的中国25省区人口分布特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(8):1229-1242.
[13] BRIGGS D J, GULLIVER J, FECHT D, et al. Dasymetric modelling of small-area population distribution using land cover and light emissions data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2007, 108(4):451-466.
[14] 叶靖, 杨小唤, 江东. 乡镇级人口统计数据空间化的格网尺度效应分析——以义乌市为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2011, 12(1):40-47.
[15] 柴彦威,李昌霞,沈洁. 中国城市老年人的活动空间[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2010.
[16] LANGFORD M, HIGGS G, RADCLIFFE J, et al. Urban population distribution models and service accessibility estimation[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2008, 32(1):66-80.
[17] QI W, LIU S, GAO X, et al. Modeling the spatial distribution of urban population during the daytime and at night based on land use:A case study in Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(6):756-768.
[18] 周爱霞, 余莉, 冯径, 等. 基于面向对象方法的高分辨率遥感影像道路提取方法研究[J]. 测绘与空间地理信息, 2017, 40(2):1-4.
[19] PARKER C, BARNES S, MCKEE K, et al. Quality of life and building design in residential and nursing homes for older people[J]. Ageing & Society, 2004, 24(6):941-962.
[20] MALIKI. Health card and health care facilities demand among the indonesian elderly[J]. The Singapore Economic Review, 2008, 53(1):103-119.
[21] 耿雅琴.w社区居家养老服务供需研究[D]. 太原:山西财经大学, 2014.
[22] 汤婧婕.浙江省养老设施供需分析及规划策略研究[D].杭州:浙江大学, 2011.
[23] 孙雅玮.基于老年人口增长的上海市养老设施规划研究[J].世界地理研究, 2016, 25(5):121-130.
[24] 林西雁.上海养老设施空间布局研究——以机构养老设施与部分社区居家养老设施为例[D].上海:华东师范大学, 2016.
[25] 中华人民共和国国家统计局.上海浦东新区统计年鉴(2010)[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2010.
[26] 中华人民共和国建设部.城镇老年人设施规划规范:GB50437-2008[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2007.
[27] 上海市人民代表大会常务委员会.上海市养老机构条例[EB/OL]. (2016-08-24)[2018-01-18]. http://shzw.eastday.com/shzw/G/20140226/ulai124709.html.
[28] REARDON G, NELSON W W, PATEL A A, et al. Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in US nursing homes:Results from the National Nursing Home Survey, 1985-2004[J]. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 2012, 13(6):529-534.
文章导航

/