华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 2019 ›› Issue (2): 174-183.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2019.02.019

• 地理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于精细化人口格网的城市机构养老设施供需分析——以上海市浦东新区为例

张德英1,2,3, 周云云1,2,3, 冷燮4, 李龙4, 周嘉源1,2,3, 施润和1,2,3   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学 地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海 200241;
    2. 华东师范大学 环境遥感与数据同化联合实验室, 上海 200241;
    3. 华东师范大学 地理科学学院, 上海 200241;
    4. 上海市浦东新区统计局普查中心, 上海 200136
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-18 出版日期:2019-03-25 发布日期:2019-03-27
  • 通讯作者: 施润和,男,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为定量遥感.E-mail:rhshi@geo.ecnu.cn E-mail:rhshi@geo.ecnu.cn
  • 作者简介:张德英,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为大数据挖掘与公共健康.E-mail:zzhangdeying@163.com.
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFC1302602）；上海市卫计委重点学科建设项目（15GWZK0201）；上海市浦东新区统计局普查中心统计项目；中央高校基本科研业务费

Analysis of the supply and demand of senior living facilities based on a refined population grid: A case study of Shanghai Pudong New District

ZHANG De-ying1,2,3, ZHOU Yun-yun1,2,3, LENG Xie4, LI Long4, ZHOU Jia-yuan1,2,3, SHI Run-he1,2,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    2. Joint Laboratory for Environmental Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    3. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;
    4. Shanghai Pudong Census Center of the Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai 200136, China
  • Received:2018-01-18 Online:2019-03-25 Published:2019-03-27

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摘要： 城市机构养老设施作为典型的公共服务资源，其供需矛盾尤为突出.基于现代地理信息技术获取的精细化人口格网，有助于在空间上有针对性地发现养老设施与老年人口之间的供需矛盾.文章以上海市浦东新区为研究区，基于160m的精细化老年人口格网，考虑机构养老设施的地理位置、床位数、入住老年人情况等要素的空间分布特征，揭示浦东新区机构养老设施与老年人口的供需关系.研究结果表明：①精细化老年人口格网能充分反映老年人口的各类空间属性特征，明确人口需求的区域特点，较好地匹配设施床位属性，充分展示设施供需现状；②研究区的机构养老设施在床位数上基本满足上海市政府提出的3%机构养老需求；③在空间上呈现出中心城区严重供不应求，设施规模小、老年人口密集，具有更迫切的养老需求；④近远郊地区供大于求，近郊地区存在多个养老设施服务范围重叠的现象，远郊地区部分养老设施地理位置偏僻，仍然存在需求缺口.

关键词: 精细化人口格网, 机构养老设施, 地理信息技术, 供需分析, 浦东新区

Abstract: The contradiction between supply and demand of urban senior living facilities, as a kind of basic public service resource, is especially severe. A refined population grid obtained by state-of-the-art geographic information technology is required to discover the spatial contradiction. This paper took Pudong New District of Shanghai as the research area. The contradiction between the supply and demand of senior living facilities was revealed based on a refined age population grid at a 160-meter resolution, considering the location of facilities, the number of beds, and the health condition of the elderly. The results show that:The refined age population grid can fully illustrate the spatial attributes of the aged population and can be matched with the distribution of beds in senior living facilities spatially, depicting both the supply and demand of senior living facilities visually. The number of beds in senior living facilities meets the requirements of the Shanghai government, namely no less than 3% of the local registered elderly population. The contradiction between supply and demand of senior living facilities depends on location. A distinctive shortage of supply exists in the central area. Smaller facilities and a dense elderly population reflect an urgent demand. Meanwhile, the situation is the reverse in the suburbs, there are multiple overlapping services of facilities. Some facilities in the outer suburbs are too remote to fit the required demand based on the distribution of the elderly population.

Key words: refined population grid, senior living facilities, geographic information technology, analysis of supply and demand, Pudong New District

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