三角洲海岸土地利用侵蚀暴露度分析及其空间规划意义——以上海浦东新区为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2023.03.018

华东师范大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 2023 ›› Issue (3): 181-193.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2023.03.018

• 河口海岸学 • 上一篇

三角洲海岸土地利用侵蚀暴露度分析及其空间规划意义——以上海浦东新区为例

王晓婷¹(), 栾华龙², 张卫国^1,*(), LAMNina Siu-Ngan³

1. 华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海　200241
2. 长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉　430010
3. 路易斯安那州立大学海岸与环境学院环境科学系, 路易斯安那州巴吞鲁日　70803, 美国

收稿日期:2021-11-02 接受日期:2022-01-06 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2023-05-25
通讯作者: 张卫国 E-mail:xiaotingwang_1@163.com;wgzhang@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn
作者简介:王晓婷, 女, 博士研究生, 研究方向为三角洲灾害与风险. E-mail: xiaotingwang_1@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFE0107400); 国家自然科学基金(42006156); 上海市科委重点项目(18DZ1206401)

Assessment of land use exposure to coastal erosion in the delta region and its implications on spatial planning: An example from the Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Xiaoting WANG¹(), Hualong LUAN², Weiguo ZHANG^1,*(), Nina Siu-Ngan LAM³

1. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai　200241, China
2. River Research Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan　430010, China
3. Department of Environmental Sciences, College of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA　70803, USA

Received:2021-11-02 Accepted:2022-01-06 Online:2023-05-25 Published:2023-05-25
Contact: Weiguo ZHANG E-mail:xiaotingwang_1@163.com;wgzhang@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

受全球变暖背景下的海平面上升及流域减沙的影响, 全球三角洲海岸侵蚀灾害风险加大. 评估三角洲地貌未来变化及其侵蚀脆弱性, 并分析海岸土地利用的暴露度, 对海岸带国土空间规划、防灾减灾和社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义. 本研究以位于长江三角洲海岸的上海浦东新区为例, 以2016年河口地形、2019年海岸土地利用为基础, 结合2035年河流来沙1.25 亿t/a、海平面累计上升16.5 cm情景下的河口地貌模拟以及浦东新区2035年规划, 评估了当前和2035年海岸侵蚀脆弱性及土地利用价值的暴露度, 进而提出国土空间规划的建议. 研究结果表明, 近千年以来的地貌演变格局决定了海岸侵蚀脆弱性的基本空间格局, 以土地利用暴露度与海岸侵蚀脆弱性等级为指标, 两者具有高和极高等级的岸段目前长度为32.3 km, 占浦东新区海岸长度的31.1%; 随着未来流域减沙以及浦东新区的发展, 2035年其长度增加至47.5 km, 比例升高为45.8%. 2035年, 浦东机场及杭州湾北岸芦潮港区域侵蚀脆弱性等级增加, 根据现有规划, 这两个区域是航空枢纽和南汇新城建设的核心区域, 其土地利用暴露度等级也将增加, 在规划的实施过程中需要加强上述区域监测和侵蚀防护. 本研究所提出的方法, 可为其他海岸地区的侵蚀灾害暴露度评估和国土空间规划制定提供参考.

关键词: 海岸侵蚀, 土地利用暴露度, 空间规划, 浦东新区, 长江三角洲

Abstract:

In the context of rising sea-levels under global warming and fluvial sediment load decline, the risk of coastal erosion is increasing in global deltas. Evaluating the delta morphological change and its vulnerability to erosion in the future and analyzing land use exposure to coastal erosion, is of great significance for spatial planning, disaster prevention and mitigation, and the sustainable development of coastal regions. In this study, Pudong New Area of Shanghai, which is located in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected to compare its coastal erosion vulnerability in 2016 and 2035 using bathymetry of 2016 and modelled bathymetry of 2035 under a scenario of fluvial sediment load of 125 Mt/a and a cumulative sea-level rise of 16.5 cm. A comparison of land use exposure is made between the pattern in 2019 and the pattern projected for 2035 by the government. The results show that the spatial pattern of coastal erosion vulnerability is controlled by the morphological evolution of the delta over the last 1000 years. Coastal sections with high and very high categories of land use exposure and erosion vulnerability in the recent past (2016—2019) total 32.3 km in length, which accounts for 31.1% of the coast of the Pudong New Area. These figures are projected to be 47.5 km and 45.8%, respectively, in 2035, under the condition of reduced fluvial sediment load and planned land usage. In 2035, coastal sections along the Pudong Airport and Luchaogang will face an increase of erosion vulnerability category. According to the current plan, these two sections also show an increase in land use exposure due to airport expansion and new city development. The results suggest that these sections require erosion monitoring and erosion management during implementation of the plan. The methods used in this study can provide references for exposure assessment of coastal erosion and the formulation of territorial planning in coastal regions elsewhere.

Key words: coastal erosion, land use exposure, spatial planning, Pudong New Area, Yangtze River Delta

中图分类号:

王晓婷, 栾华龙, 张卫国, LAMNina Siu-Ngan. 三角洲海岸土地利用侵蚀暴露度分析及其空间规划意义——以上海浦东新区为例[J]. 华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 2023(3): 181-193.

Xiaoting WANG, Hualong LUAN, Weiguo ZHANG, Nina Siu-Ngan LAM. Assessment of land use exposure to coastal erosion in the delta region and its implications on spatial planning: An example from the Pudong New Area of Shanghai[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 2023(3): 181-193.

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脆弱性等级	2016 年长度/km	2016 年比例/%	2035 年长度/km	2035 年比例/%	2016—2035 年比例增减/%
极低	22.28	21.47	29.57	28.50	7.02
低	8.49	8.18	6.80	6.55	–1.63
中等	40.52	39.04	17.90	17.24	–21.80
高	22.31	21.50	27.16	26.18	4.67
极高	10.17	9.80	22.35	21.53	11.73

暴露性等级	2019 年长度/km	2019 年比例/%	2035 年长度/km	2035 年比例/%	2019—2035 年比例增减/%
极低	15.41	14.85	1.30	1.25	–13.60
低	29.78	28.69	20.31	19.57	–9.13
中等	3.62	3.48	5.96	5.74	2.26
高	35.01	33.73	34.63	33.37	–0.36
极高	19.97	19.24	41.59	40.07	20.83

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三角洲海岸土地利用侵蚀暴露度分析及其空间规划意义——以上海浦东新区为例

Assessment of land use exposure to coastal erosion in the delta region and its implications on spatial planning: An example from the Pudong New Area of Shanghai

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