华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 2014 ›› Issue (6): 81-89.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.10005641.2014.06.012

• 地理学 河口海岸学 • 上一篇    下一篇

东海风暴潮数值预报模式参数的敏感性分析

邬惠明，高清清     

  1. 国家海洋局 南通海洋环境监测中心站， 江苏 南通 226005
  • 出版日期:2014-11-25 发布日期:2015-02-07
  • 通讯作者: 邬惠明，男，高级工程师，从事海洋预报防灾减灾工作 E-mail:whm@eastsea.gov.cn

Sensitivity analysis of parameters in the numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea

 WU  Hui-Ming, GAO  Qing-Qing     

  1. Nantong Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, S.O.A.,  Nantong Jiangsu 226005,  China
  • Online:2014-11-25 Published:2015-02-07

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摘要： 设计两个模拟台风，以北上型台风路径对东海风暴潮数值预报模式进行敏感性分析。采用高桥水文站的风暴潮计算结果，分析了台风引起的最大增水及出现时间对台风中心经度、纬度、中心气压和最大风圈半径的敏感程度。结果表明，最大风暴增水的数值对台风中心纬度并不敏感，对台风中心气压、最大风圈半径有一定的敏感，但也并不显著，而对台风中心经度最为敏感。最大增水出现的时间则对台风中心气压、最大风圈半径并不敏感，对台风中心经度和纬度较为敏感，尤其是纬度最为显著。在设计的两种模拟台风中，最大增水出现的时间表现出对台风中心纬度以及台风移速更为敏感.

关键词: 东海风暴潮数值预报模式, 敏感性, 最大风暴增水

Abstract: Based on two simulated typhoons, the sensitivity analysis was carried out for the numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea with northward typhoon. Using the stormsurge calculations of the Gaoqiao tidal station, the sensitivities of maximum storm surge to typhoon center longitude, latitude, central pressure and the maximum wind radius were studied. The results show that the maximum increase of water is not sensitive to the latitude of the typhoon center, is a little sensitive to typhoon central pressure and maximum wind radius, and is the most sensitive to typhoon center longitude. The time of maximum increase of water is not sensitive to the typhoon central pressure and the maximum wind radius, but is more sensitive to typhoon center longitude and latitude, especially the latitude. Between the two types of simulated typhoon, the time of maximum increase of water is more sensitive to typhoon center latitude and moving speed.

Key words: the numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea, sensitive, maximum storm surge

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