关键词: 气候变化, 旱涝灾害, SPI, 小波分析, 华南地区

Abstract: According to the meteorological data of 80 stations in South China, influences of different disaster inducing factors on climate change were analyzed, using MannKendall test method, standardized precipitation index, the wavelet analysis, to explore the trend of drought and flood under global warming background. The results showed that: (1) In the last 54 years, the annual average temperature was 19.95 °C in South China, with a linear tendency being 0.17 °C/10a. The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1993. (2) The precipitation in South China was increasing with the speed of 8.775 mm/10a. After the abrupt change of temperature，the temperature increased fast, while the precipitation decreased rapidly. The colding and wetting in spring changed to warming and wetting; the warming and drying in autumn changed to warming and wetting; the warming and wetting in winter changed to warming and drying.(3) According to the amount of annual precipitation, South China area was divided into two regions: the average annual precipitation in Yunnan province was increasing along the latitude direction from north to south; the average annual precipitation in the other provinces were increasing along the longitude direction from east to west. (4) The flood increased and drought reduced after the abrupt change of temperature. The frequency of flood increased in some areas, while the frequency of drought reduced in space. Therefore, the overall climate change presented a warming and wetting trend.

Key words: climate change, drought and flood disaster, standardized precipitation index, wavelet analysis, South China