华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2009, Vol. 2009 ›› Issue (3): 153-159.

• 河流与海洋 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对挠力河径流量的影响

姚允龙1,2，吕宪国1,王蕾13   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所 湿地生态与环境重点实验室,长春130012; 2. 中国科学院 研究生院, 北京 100039; 3. 黑龙江科技学院 建筑工程学院, 哈尔滨150027
  • 收稿日期:2008-11-12 修回日期:2009-02-25 出版日期:2009-05-25 发布日期:2009-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 吕宪国

Assessing the impacts of climate changes on thestreamflow of Naoli River

YAO Yunlong1,2,Lv Xianguo1,WANG Lei13   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography andAgriculture Ecology, CAS, Changchun130012, China; 2. Graduate School, CAS, Beijing100039, China;3. College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Scienceand Technology, Harbin150027, China
  • Received:2008-11-12 Revised:2009-02-25 Online:2009-05-25 Published:2009-05-25
  • Contact: Lv Xianguo

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摘要： 利用MannKendall突变检验法分别分析了1956—2005年50年来的宝清站和菜嘴子站年平均径流量演变的阶段性特征，并建立了径流降雨的经验模型，利用该模型分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.研究结果表明：50年来宝清站和菜嘴子站的年平均径流量演变可分为两个阶段:1956—1967年的基准期和1968—2005年的变化期.变化期内径流量的年际和年内都发生了较大变化，体现在年平均径流量减少显著，两个站的年平均径流量减少量都在50%左右.径流变差系数有不同程度的增长，其中菜嘴子站增长了近30%.年内分配变化主要体现在径流峰值上，菜嘴子站的夏季径流峰值和最低值的出现时间都较第一阶段提前了一个月.变化期内年均径流量的变化主要是由人类活动引起的，气候变化引起的径流量变化占年均径流量总变化量的40%左右.

关键词: 三江平原, 挠力河, 径流量, 沼泽湿地, 气候变化, 三江平原, 挠力河, 径流量, 沼泽湿地, 气候变化

Abstract:
In this paper, the nonparametric MannKendallSneyers test was used to analyze the stationarity of the annual streamflow records of Baoqing hydrological station and Caizuizi hydrological station in Naoli River watershed from 1956 to 2005. The empirical model which shows the relationship between rainfall and streamflow was established, and the model was used to assess the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual streamflows. The result shows that the whole period of annual streamflows from 1956 to 2005 can be divided into two phases: baseline period (1956—1967) and changed period (1968—2005). During the changed period，the interannual and intraannual variability of streamflows changed significantly, and the interannual variability of streamflows was mainly caused by human activities, about 40 percent was caused by climate changes.

Key words: Naoli River, streamflow, marsh, climate change, Sanjiang Plain, Naoli River, streamflow, marsh, climate change

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