华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 2015 ›› Issue (4): 54-64.

• 河口海岸学 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江河口径流量与海平面上升对气候变化及人类活动的响应~(英)

朱建荣，裘诚   

  1. 华东师范大学~ 河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-13 出版日期:2015-07-25 发布日期:2015-09-25
  • 通讯作者: 朱建荣, 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为河口海岸海洋动力学 E-mail:jrzhu@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:朱建荣, 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向为河口海岸海洋动力学
  • 基金资助:

    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951201);
    国家自然科学基金(41176071)

Responses of river discharge and sea level rise to climate change and human activity in the Changjiang River Estuary embodied in a numerical model

ZHU Jian-rong, Qiu Cheng   

  • Received:2014-06-13 Online:2015-07-25 Published:2015-09-25

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摘要： 气候变化和人类活动所导致的径流量变化和海平面上升都是数值模式中重要的边界条件.因此, 为了得到合适的边界条件,本文给出~2030、2050~和~2100~年气候变化和人类活动影响下长江径流量和海平面上升的变化情况.考虑到三峡工程于~2003~年坝体合拢,利用大通站~1865~至~2002~年的历史径流量资料,发现利用资料外推获得的径流量变化率与气候模型所得结果近似,得到在~2030、2050~和~2100~年~1、2月平均径流量在气候变化影响下分别为~12\,348、12~683~~13~522.在过去~20~年, 长江河口绝对海平面上升率约为~2.5.根据海平面变化资料分析预报模型,2012~年至~2030、2050~和~2100~年绝对海平面分别上升~49.1、148.1~和~395.6mm.长江河口的盐水入侵数值模拟需考虑三峡水库和南水北调对入海径流量的影响.同时, 相对海平面变化需要考虑地壳下沉和地基沉降.本文给出各个预估时期上述内容的量值.

关键词: 长江河口, 气候变化, 人类活动;径流量, 海平面上升

Abstract: Climate change and human activity result in the variations in river discharge and sea level rise, both of which are very important for setting the boundary conditions of a numerical model.Thus, to obtain proper boundary conditions, this study presents projected variations in the amounts of Changjiang river discharge and sea level rise caused by climate change and human activity in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Considering the Three Gorges Dam closure in
2003 and utilizing the historical river discharge data at Datong Station from 1865 to 2002, the river discharge variations resulting from the extrapolation of historic data and climate models are almost identical. The mean river discharge in January and February will reach 12\,348, 12\,683, and 13\,522 m$^{3}\cdot$s$^{-1}$ in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, due to climate change. In the past 20 years, the rate of absolute sea level rise was approximately
2.5\;mm$\cdot$a$^{-1}$ in the Changjiang River Estuary. In accordance with the observed tidal data that based on the sea level change over time analysis-based forecasting model, the absolute sea level rise will be 49.1, 148.1, and 395.6 mm in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, compared to the 2012 levels. The saltwater intrusion simulation numerical model for the Changjiang River Estuary must consider the impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir and
South-to-North Water Diversion on the river discharge. The earth crust and land subsidence should also be considered for an accurate
determination of the relative sea level rise. These values are presented in this paper for each prediction period