华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2017, Vol. 2017 ›› Issue (2): 138-147.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2017.02.017

• 河口海岸学 • 上一篇    

宁波大榭岛多年一遇高潮位推算方法探讨

卢思文1,2, 潘灵芝2, 肖文军2, 龚茂珣3, 陈昞睿2   

  1. 1. 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院, 上海 201306;
    2. 国家海洋局东海预报中心, 上海 200136;
    3. 国家海洋局东海信息中心, 上海 200136
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-29 出版日期:2017-03-25 发布日期:2017-03-23
  • 通讯作者: 肖文军,男,博士,工程师,研究方向为海洋环境数值预报.E-mail:xiaowenjun@eastsea.gov.cn E-mail:xiaowenjun@eastsea.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:卢思文,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为海洋数值模型研究.E-mail:lsw2014@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    东海分局青年基金（201201）；海洋公益性行业科研专项（201405022-3）；上海市科委地方院校能力建设计划项目（15320502200）

A method of estimating high elevation of multi-year return periods

LU Si-wen1,2, PAN Ling-zhi2, XIAO Wen-jun2, GONG Mao-xun3, CHEN Bing-rui2   

  1. 1. College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    2. East China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration, Shanghai 200136, China;
    3. East China Sea Marine Information Center of State Oceanic Administration, Shanghai 200136, China
  • Received:2016-03-29 Online:2017-03-25 Published:2017-03-23

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摘要：

本文以浙江宁波大榭岛石化集中区为例，探讨在无潮位观测资料情况下多年一遇高潮位的推算方法.基于大榭岛附近海域定海、镇海25年潮位观测资料，选取导致大榭岛潮位年极值的强天气过程，利用经验证精度可靠的WRF风场+ADCIRC风暴潮模型，重构大榭岛石化集中区海域连续25年历史高潮位年极值序列.根据定海、镇海2站的模型计算误差对大榭岛高潮位年极值序列进行加权修正，再利用Gumbel概率曲线推算大榭岛多年一遇高潮位.其结果可供该海域海洋工程设计使用，为已建海洋工程、海洋灾害风险排查提供参考.

关键词: 宁波大榭岛, 多年一遇高潮位, 数值模拟, Gumbel, 加权修正

Abstract:

This paper introduced a method of estimating extreme water level of multi-year return periods where observed data were inadequate, with the instance of Daxiedao Petrochemical Zone in Ningbo, Zhejiang. Strong weather processes caused annual maximum elevations in the past 25 years were chosen, modelled and validated based on observed wind and water elevation data of 2 nearby ocean stations, Dinghai and Zhenhai. By using well validated wind data from WRF model and the ADCIRC storm surge model, 25 years of annual maximum elevations at Daxiedao Petrochemical Zone were simulated and corrected by using the weight-averaged correlation between the model and observation in 2 ocean stations. The extreme water level of multi-year return periods was analyzed based on Gumbel distribution assumption and used for the ocean engineering design and risk investigation.

Key words: Ningbo Daxiedao, multi-year extreme water level, numerical simulation, Gumbel distribution, Weight-averaged correlation

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