Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc ›› 2016, Vol. 2016 ›› Issue (3): 125-135.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2016.03.014

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Potential hazard assessment of typhoon storm surge based on scenario simulation methodology in Yuhuan County, Zhejiang Province

 CHEN  Jie 1, SONG  Cheng-Cheng 1,2 , LI  Meng-Ya 1,2, WANG  Jun 1,2   

  • Received:2015-03-04 Online:2016-05-25 Published:2016-09-22

Abstract: Typhoon storm surges are responsible for most of the damage caused by oceanic disasters in Yuhuan, Zhejiang Province. Considering the coastline features of Yuhuan County, 7 translation paths were designed based on the path of TC0608 (Saomai), which formed the lowest central pressure at the moment of landfall in Zhejiang since 1949. In consideration of the 7 translation typhoon paths and sea level rise, storm surges in 28 compound scenarios were simulated by using MIKE21 FM for potential impacts analysis. The results showed that the possibility of overtopping inundation due to typhoon storm surges was quite low under the present condition. However, the impacts obviously became more serious as sea level rising, and the three typhoons landing in the north of Yuhuan were especially sensitive in terms of responding to the sea level rose. In scenarios with the same sea level rise value, typhoons landing in the south of Yuhuan caused more serious inundation than those landing in the north part. In 2100, the largest water depth would reach 5.44 m and the inundation area would be 160.75 km2, accounting for about 35.93% of the total area of Yuhuan. The potential highrisk inundation areas are mainly distributed in the southeastern and western part of Yuhuan, with a relatively low elevation. The results could offer reference for making adaptation strategies and engineering countermeasures for future extreme storm surges disasters in Yuhuan County.

Key words: scenario simulation;typhoon storm surge;MIKE21 FM;hazard assessment, Yuhuan County

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