Response characteristics of the evolution of Chongming Dongtan wetland in the Yangtze River Estuary to sea level rise

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2025.02.005

Abstract

Abstract:

The SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model) is employed to simulate a wetland’s evolution by considering scenarios of sea level rise and whether the wetland is protected by seawalls. This study investigates the effects of tidal range, slope, and land subsidence on wetland stability. The findings are as follows: ① Chongming Dongtan wetland will be reduced in size in future under the influence of sea level rise. From 2020 to 2050, its wetland area retention rate will be 0.732 ~ 0.763. In addition, the Chongming Dongtan wetland is expected to begin shrinking as early as 2039. ② The seawall in the restored area of Chongming Dongtan wetland can prevent reverse succession and transitional salt marsh during the response to sea level rise; ③ The changes in tidal range, slope, and land subsidence can affect the stability of the Chongming Dongtan wetland. If the goal is to stabilize Chongming Dongtan wetland by 2050, the tidal range must reach at least 3.0 meters or the slope of the profile must be above 2.06‰.

Key words: sea level rise, ecological restoration engineering, wetland area retention rate, SLAMM

CLC Number:

P737.12+1

Yating HOU, Weiming XIE, Jiaheng YUAN, Xianye WANG. Response characteristics of the evolution of Chongming Dongtan wetland in the Yangtze River Estuary to sea level rise[J]. J* E* C* N* U* N* S*, 2025, 2025(2): 42-54.

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地物类型	SLAMM分类系统	SLAMM编码
修复区域	Developed Dry Land	1
海三棱藨草	Regularly Flooded Marsh	8
光滩	Tidal Flat	11
海域	Open Ocean	19
芦苇	Irregularly Flooded Marsh	20

工况	2014—2050年海平面上升速率/(mm·a^–1)	2020—2050年海平面上升值/mm	2014—2100年海平面上升速率/(mm·a^–1)	2020—2100年海平面上升值/mm
CSLB	3.5	105	3.5	280
SSP1-2.6	5.8	175	5.5	437
SSP2-4.5	6.1	183	6.9	549
SSP5-8.5	6.7	200	9.7	772

各分区	1	2	3	4
沉积速率/(mm·a^–1)	178	0	103	–6

编号	工况	是否有海堤保护	2020—2050 年海平面上升值/mm	2020—2100 年海平面上升值/mm
1	CSLB	是	105	280
2	CSLB	否	105	280
3	SSP1-2.6	是	175	437
4	SSP1-2.6	否	175	437
5	SSP2-4.5	是	183	549
6	SSP2-4.5	否	183	549
7	SSP5-8.5	是	200	772
8	SSP5-8.5	否	200	772

工况	修复区域	过渡盐沼植被	海三棱藨草	芦苇	光滩
2020年初始值	1865	0	1272	1673	9668
CSLB	1861	0	950	1558	4457
SSP1-2.6	1807	53	951	1535	4017
SSP2-4.5	1691	152	959	1520	3702
SSP5-8.5	1308	408	1083	1483	3104