Development and application of the forecasting model for extratropical storm surges around the Changjiang estuary

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2017.02.015

Abstract

Abstract:

The Changjiang estuary (CE) is influenced by tropical storm surges in summer, and extratropical storm surges in winter. However, there has been limited research on the latter and numerical hindcast/forecast model. Therefore,a forecasting model for extratropical storm surges is set up for the CE and adjacent region using mesoscale weather model WRF, hydrodynamic model ADCIRC and coupled with nearshore wave model SWAN. The observed data of wind and water levels were used to make extensive model calibration, especially the hindcast validation, and the overall average relative error is less than 10%, which indicates excellent model precision and reliability. Based on this hindcast/forecast model, the major characteristics and mechanism of winter extratropical storm surges around the CE has been discussed and analyzed. And the contribution of wind stress and air pressure on the surge has been quantitatively revealed. The surge's response to the wind direction is also discussed.

Key words: extratropical storm surges, Changjiang estuary, ADCIRC, forecasting model

CLC Number:

P731.3

FU Yuan-chong, DING Ping-xing, GE Jian-zhong, ZONG Hai-bo. Development and application of the forecasting model for extratropical storm surges around the Changjiang estuary[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc, 2017, 2017(2): 116-125.

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