华东师范大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 2016 ›› Issue (2): 128-143.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2016.02.015

• 河口海岸学 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江口咸潮入侵预报系统的设计与应用

 陶英佳, 葛建忠, 丁平兴   

  1. 华东师范大学 河口海岸学国家重点实验室，上海200062
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-11 出版日期:2016-03-25 发布日期:2016-07-25
  • 通讯作者: 丁平兴，男，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为物理海洋学. E-mail:pxding@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金（41306080,41476076）;长江口北支水沙盐输运模拟技术研究（2013BAB12B03）

Design and application of saltwater intrusion forecastingsystem in the Changjiang Estuary

 TAO  Ying-Jia, GE  Jian-Zhong, DING  Ping-Xing   

  • Received:2015-02-11 Online:2016-03-25 Published:2016-07-25

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摘要： 基于长江口高分辨率FVCOM数值模型，在率定验证可靠的基础上，建立了一个驱动数据下载、模型计算、可视化处理、预报成果发布的集成自动化操作的长江口咸潮入侵预报系统，采用WRF天气模式进行长江口及临近海域的风场预测，从而能够进行未来3 d（72 h）长江口盐度的三维空间分布以及时间变化预报.并通过该系统后报检验了2011年1月份长江口南支堡镇和崇西的盐度变化过程，后报检验良好.操作便捷、自动化运行等优点使得该系统具有一定实用价值，能够方便及时地对长江口咸潮入侵进行预报.

关键词: 长江口, 咸潮入侵, 自动化预报, FVCOM

Abstract: Based on a highresolution and wellvalidated FVCOM model, a saltwater intrusion forecasting system in the Changjiang Estuary has been set up.A WRF model is also applied to predict the wind speed and direction in the Changjiang Estuary and its adjacent sea. The forecasting system can forecast threedimensional spatial distribution of salinity in the Changjiang Estuary at each moment during the following three days (72 hours).The forecasting system downloads the forcing data, runs the WRF and FVCOM model, visualizes prediction results and publishes the results. All the above operations are automatically processed by computer.The system was validated by hindcasting salinity of two stations, which are Baozhen and Chongxi at South Branch, during January 2011. The comparison of salinity between system hindcasted value and observation show the system is reliable. The system, with advantages of convenient operation and automatic procession, forecasts the saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary easily and timely.

Key words: Changjiang Estuary, saltwater intrusion, automatic forecast, FVCOM

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