Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc

Previous Articles    

Predictions of suitable distribution of Meteorium in China under climate change

LIU Yan   

  1. College of Life Sciences, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China
  • Received:2015-12-18 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2017-01-13


According to 166 geographic distribution records of six Meteorium species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the present study employed both Maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the spatial analysis methods in the ArcGIS 10.2 to predict the potential distribution of Meteorium in China and compare the range size of each projection under different climate scenarios, in order to provide scientific evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change for bryophytes’ distribution. The results showed that temperature annual range, mean temperature of coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100) and max temperature of warmest month were the major factors influencing the distribution of Meteorium in China. Under current climate condition, the suitable distribution of Meteorium located in large parts of southern Qin Ling and Huai River. While in future climate scenarios (i.e. 2050s and 2070s), both of the ranges were predicted to decrease slightly. It will become 94.48% and 95.78% of the current suitable area in 2050s and 2070s, respectively.

Key words: bryophytes, climate change, maximum entropy model, Meteorium, species distribution