Assessment of land use exposure to coastal erosion in the delta region and its implications on spatial planning: An example from the Pudong New Area of Shanghai

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2023.03.018

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of rising sea-levels under global warming and fluvial sediment load decline, the risk of coastal erosion is increasing in global deltas. Evaluating the delta morphological change and its vulnerability to erosion in the future and analyzing land use exposure to coastal erosion, is of great significance for spatial planning, disaster prevention and mitigation, and the sustainable development of coastal regions. In this study, Pudong New Area of Shanghai, which is located in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected to compare its coastal erosion vulnerability in 2016 and 2035 using bathymetry of 2016 and modelled bathymetry of 2035 under a scenario of fluvial sediment load of 125 Mt/a and a cumulative sea-level rise of 16.5 cm. A comparison of land use exposure is made between the pattern in 2019 and the pattern projected for 2035 by the government. The results show that the spatial pattern of coastal erosion vulnerability is controlled by the morphological evolution of the delta over the last 1000 years. Coastal sections with high and very high categories of land use exposure and erosion vulnerability in the recent past (2016—2019) total 32.3 km in length, which accounts for 31.1% of the coast of the Pudong New Area. These figures are projected to be 47.5 km and 45.8%, respectively, in 2035, under the condition of reduced fluvial sediment load and planned land usage. In 2035, coastal sections along the Pudong Airport and Luchaogang will face an increase of erosion vulnerability category. According to the current plan, these two sections also show an increase in land use exposure due to airport expansion and new city development. The results suggest that these sections require erosion monitoring and erosion management during implementation of the plan. The methods used in this study can provide references for exposure assessment of coastal erosion and the formulation of territorial planning in coastal regions elsewhere.

Key words: coastal erosion, land use exposure, spatial planning, Pudong New Area, Yangtze River Delta

CLC Number:

Xiaoting WANG, Hualong LUAN, Weiguo ZHANG, Nina Siu-Ngan LAM. Assessment of land use exposure to coastal erosion in the delta region and its implications on spatial planning: An example from the Pudong New Area of Shanghai[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 2023(3): 181-193.

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脆弱性等级	2016 年长度/km	2016 年比例/%	2035 年长度/km	2035 年比例/%	2016—2035 年比例增减/%
极低	22.28	21.47	29.57	28.50	7.02
低	8.49	8.18	6.80	6.55	–1.63
中等	40.52	39.04	17.90	17.24	–21.80
高	22.31	21.50	27.16	26.18	4.67
极高	10.17	9.80	22.35	21.53	11.73

暴露性等级	2019 年长度/km	2019 年比例/%	2035 年长度/km	2035 年比例/%	2019—2035 年比例增减/%
极低	15.41	14.85	1.30	1.25	–13.60
低	29.78	28.69	20.31	19.57	–9.13
中等	3.62	3.48	5.96	5.74	2.26
高	35.01	33.73	34.63	33.37	–0.36
极高	19.97	19.24	41.59	40.07	20.83

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