Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc ›› 2006, Vol. 2006 ›› Issue (6): 67-74.

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Evaluation and Predication of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on SD Model: A Case Study of Chongming Island(Chinese)

CHE Yue1, ZHANG Ming-cheng2, YANG Kai1   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Ecological Restoration, Department of Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China； 2.Shanghai Design Institute on Environmental Sanitary Engineering, Shanghai 200232, China
  • Received:2006-08-23 Revised:2006-09-18 Online:2006-11-25 Published:2012-11-09
  • Contact: CHE Yue

Abstract:

Based on system dynamics model, the water resources carrying capacity of Chongming Island in Shanghai city was discussed. Six scenes of water diversion (local surface water quantity, present water diversion quantity, 10% largest water diversion quantity, 20% largest water diversion quantity, 30% largest water diversion quantity and 50% largest water diversion quantity) as well as four scenes of water resource policies (present water policy, water conservation and recycling policy, industrial structure adjustment policy and integrate policy) were analyzed. The water resources carrying capacity of Chongming Island in different years was simulated, and the population, GDP and COD at different scenes were predicated. Compared with longterm plan of Chongming Island, the water resources carrying capacity indicators were calculated. Finally, the strategy which can promote coordinated development of society, economy and environment was obtained.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics, Chongming Island, estuarine island, water resources carrying capacity, system dynamics, Chongming Island

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