Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc ›› 2015, Vol. 2015 ›› Issue (4): 26-33.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2015.04.004

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Statistical forecasting of storm surge under single stationobservations in Zhoushan island terrain

KANG Xing,ZHANG Bei,DU Pan-jun,XU Ting-ting,ZHANG Hui   

  • Received:2014-03-28 Online:2015-07-25 Published:2015-09-25

Abstract: According to Zhoushan tidal observations including Dinghai, Daishan, Shengshan, and CMA STI tropical cyclone best tracking data from 1982 to 2011, we found two kinds of typical typhoon path caused the heaviest and most frequently storm surge. One is landing in southern Zhejiang, and the other is northward moving and near shore turning.Based on the above two kinds of typhoon data, we analyzed the relationship between characteristics of the typhoon(such as strength, moving speed, distance factor etc.) and tide and the storm surge intensity and type.Using the multivariate nonlinear regression analysis, we choose the most relevant factors to create a statistical model for storm surge forecasting. It showed the good results through the actual cases appling such as matsa, muifa and tembin.

Key words: single station, statistical forecasting, storm surge, island terrain

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