Evaluation and forecast of livability for the global city: A case study of Shanghai

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2017.01.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Global city is an inevitable form in the development of urban city, which influences global affairs directly in all aspects including sociology, economics, culture and politics. As a leader in modernization in China, improving livability is one of the most important tasks in the construction of global city for Shanghai. Based on the existing evaluation index system of global city’s livability, modifications in indexes are made according to the characteristics in the development of modern cities. By comparison of New York, Tokyo and Shanghai, we propose and verify the “N-curve hypothesis” of livability in global cities: livability experiences “up-down-up” process with rising per capita income. Decomposition analysis is used for identifying main factors of livability during different development stages. Moreover, four scenarios based on Exponential Smoothing method and Logistic model are set to predict the development of livability of Shanghai in next 30 years. Result shows that vision according to development of Tokyo while keeping Shanghai’s own advantages can achieve the best livability, which can be helpful for construction of livable Shanghai.

Key words: city, livability, Shanghai, N-curve hypothesis, scenario

HAN Ji, YUAN Kun, HUANG Lu-xia, MENG Xing. Evaluation and forecast of livability for the global city: A case study of Shanghai[J]. Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Sc, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2017.01.010.

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